Since the outbreak of the Novel Coronavirus (2019-nCoV) in Wuhan in late December 2019, the Chinese government has taken strong measures to curb the spread of this deadly virus, most notably the centralized isolation of the epicenter of the outbreak in Wuhan , And adopted strong control and preventive measures in Beijing, Shanghai and other metropolises and other population centers in China. These efforts have been widely reported by the media at home and abroad, and some major questions have been raised: First, why has the government imposed an unprecedented quarantine on Wuhan? Second, do China's central government and local authorities have sufficient capacity to control the virus? Third, what is the negative impact of the epidemic on China's economy? Fourth, in the face of epidemics, what kind of international cooperation is needed to ensure human safety? As the fight against the epidemic is still ongoing, the following are some preliminary answers and assessments given by the working team of the Shanghai Institute of International Studies specializing in global governance issues.
1. Why does China adopt centralized quarantine measures in Wuhan and other areas with severe epidemics?
Centralized isolation is a traditional but most effective measure to curb deadly epidemics, although it may bring unforeseen risks and consequences. As there is no specific treatment or vaccine for viral infections (including 2019-nCoV), standard public health emergency measures often prove to be the most effective, including isolating the source of infection, cutting off or interrupting the route of transmission, and special protection for the most susceptible population . Existing medical evidence shows that humans, regardless of gender, age or race, are susceptible to this deadly new coronavirus; therefore, in the absence of specific treatments or vaccines, pathogen isolation and transmission chain blockade are current The only reliable and effective method. The unprecedented centralized isolation of Wuhan, the epicenter of the outbreak, reflects China's dedication as a responsible power. In fact, since the beginning of the centralized quarantine, the number of confirmed cases in all regions has grown at a much slower rate than the epicenter of Hubei Province; Wuhan is still the only city with concentrated infections. Among all confirmed cases outside of Hubei Province, most of the patients have recently lived or traveled to Wuhan and other parts of Hubei, and the remaining patients have had close contact with the above-mentioned patients. So far, there have been no reports of local community transmission or any new epicenter of the outbreak. Based on these facts, we can conclude that strict control of the population exodus in Hubei Province is an effective way to curb the spread of the deadly virus. Currently, high-level emergency alerts have been activated throughout China, and strong public health measures have been adopted to identify, diagnose, and isolate infected or suspected cases as early as possible. At the same time, the Lunar New Year holiday has been extended to ensure that the population migration across the country is kept to a minimum; it is recommended that travelers from Wuhan and other areas with severe epidemics report their travel records and self-quarantine for two weeks to prevent community transmission. According to reports, the 5 million people who left Wuhan before the quarantine announcement were not panic evacuees, but migrant workers returning home to reunite with their families, or travelers on vacation in China and abroad.
What would happen if China did not isolate Wuhan from other epidemic areas? According to reliable analysis, a highly connected global transportation network may spread infectious pathogens from closed villages in unknown corners of the world to major cities on six continents in less than 36 hours and cause epidemics or epidemics. However, in China, as of January 30, 2020, more than a month after the first confirmed case was reported, and 8 days after Wuhan was closed, a total of 98 sporadic cases of infection were reported in 18 countries. If the Chinese government does not make a determined effort to isolate places where confirmed cases are concentrated, this deadly virus may have spread to all parts of the world and have a devastating impact on the global economy and public health system. As the Director-General of the World Health Organization Tan Desai pointed out at a press conference on January 30, “Although the epidemic has had a serious social and economic impact on the Chinese people, the Chinese government has taken extraordinary measures to contain the epidemic. Measures. For this, the Chinese government should be congratulated."
Beijing is doing everything possible to ensure a continuous supply of daily necessities and medical materials. Hubei Province is rich in natural resources, and there is never a shortage of basic supplies. The Ministry of Commerce has launched a supply mechanism involving nine provincial-level authorities. Through these mechanisms, basic materials including medical materials have been steadily imported into Hubei. For the Chinese, it is a long-term tradition to store enough food and other supplies during the Spring Festival, and many families in Wuhan have accumulated sufficient supplies before being quarantined. Therefore, there is no general shortage of food or other necessities of life. The citizens of Wuhan do not live in an abandoned city. Food supply and basic social services are fully guaranteed. Although public transportation in Wuhan has been suspended, the personal freedom of local residents has not been restricted, and most families have chosen to self-isolate to avoid potential infections. Those who must travel are provided with vehicles by community organizations. As the lives of local residents begin to return to normal, as information is regularly announced and personal hygiene protection is strengthened, public sentiment is improving. Hubei Province has 72 Class A hospitals and 942 other medical facilities. Two of the top ten hospitals in China are located in Wuhan. The city also has 229 other medical facilities. Medical institutions across China are ready to provide assistance to Wuhan upon request, and some medical personnel are arriving in Wuhan to strengthen the local public health system. In accordance with the model of Xiaotangshan Hospital built in 2003 to treat patients with severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) in Beijing, three new hospitals were built in Hubei, including the Huanggang Dabieshan Regional Medical Center (with 1,000 beds), which was fully operational on January 28 ), as well as Huoshenshan Hospital (1,000 beds, covering an area of 34,000 square meters) and Leishenshan Hospital (1,500 beds, covering an area of 75,000 square meters). The latter two hospitals are expected to be released on February 3 and 5, respectively. It will be put into use within 10 days after the construction plan is made. The full operation of these three facilities will further enhance the local public health capacity.
2. Can the Chinese government succeed in containing the epidemic?
In the fight against the NCOV epidemic in 2019, China has adopted a whole-of-government approach of one chess game, and at the same time, it has carried out sufficient social mobilization.
On January 20, President Xi Jinping and Premier Li Keqiang instructed governments at all levels to attach great importance to the development of the epidemic. The National Health Commission and local governments were ordered to activate various emergency response mechanisms. On January 25th, Premier Li Keqiang of the State Council was designated as the leader of the newly established Central Leading Group for Response to the Novel Coronavirus Pneumonia Epidemic. Two days later, he inspected Wuhan to check the latest developments and boost public morale.
The rapid mobilization of high-level officials made the entire country react immediately. Currently, more than 52 batches of 6,097 medical professionals are working in Wuhan and other areas of Hubei. Medical supplies, including masks, protective clothing and medicines have been delivered to the affected areas. The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology urges medical suppliers across China to restore their full production capacity to ensure that all necessary items are continuously provided.
The local government is taking all measures to control and prevent the epidemic. Currently, most of the confirmed cases reported outside of Hubei are imported infections-patients have either been to Wuhan, lived in Wuhan, or had close contact with the infected person. Due to early government intervention, there were no other concentrated outbreak sites except Wuhan. At present, the primary tasks of the local government include: identifying and caring for symptomatic patients, and recommending and monitoring those who have travel records in Wuhan to self-isolate. Restrictive measures, such as migration control and large-scale isolation, may cause social chaos, which requires an appropriate response from local governments. As the demand for masks and liquid soap soars, price control and quality supervision are also necessary.
The local government plays a vital role in the vast rural areas, because the residents there have only a vague understanding of personal hygiene. Many people still don’t want to wear masks and wash their hands with soap, even if the infection situation is urgent. New Year greetings and family reunions during the Spring Festival also significantly increase the possibility of large-scale infections. In the absence of high-quality medical resources, local governments play an indispensable role in promoting self-isolation, recommending to avoid unnecessary travel or visits, and promoting public health education.
In addition to implementing local preventive and control measures, the provincial and local governments have also provided timely assistance to Wuhan in terms of medical personnel, medical supplies and food supplies at the request of the central government. It is difficult for factories to quickly restore full production capacity, and most of them have insufficient manpower, supply and funds during the holidays. Local governments should mobilize and coordinate resources to assist these factories to resume operations. The inter-provincial assistance and coordination reflects the national consensus on the necessity of responding to challenges at critical moments.
Businesses and the public are also contributing to the fight against this epidemic. Since the outbreak of the deadly virus, financial and material donations from Chinese companies have been increasing. As of the end of January, Hubei's charitable organizations and the Red Cross had received as much as 4.26 billion yuan and 5.29 million donated materials. Corporate giants such as Alibaba and Fosun International Co., Ltd. have carried out overseas purchases to supply Wuhan with urgently needed medical equipment.
It is worth noting that Chinese technology companies have proven that the Internet plays a special role in China’s social governance. A platform that provides online medical and clinical services aimed at reducing the infection of fever patients in hospitals. Another platform reassures the public by debunking rumors and conspiracy theories. The taxi-hailing company Didi has set up a dedicated fleet to transport medical staff during the traffic disruption in Wuhan. Another company designed a search application that users can use to check whether they are a companion of an infected person. From the SARS outbreak to the new crown virus pneumonia epidemic, Internet companies have assumed more and more corporate responsibilities in times of crisis.
The Chinese public experienced a quiet Spring Festival because many people cancelled their scheduled parties and vacations. Although initially anxious, questioned and worried about information disclosure, in a country with 1.4 billion people and 800 million netizens, the public’s conscience and rationality are commendable. As the government improves information transparency, the initial criticism will soon abate and be replaced by optimism and general support for government initiatives and programs. Now, the public is praising the brave medical staff from all over China working in Wuhan hospitals, taking Dr. Zhong Nanshan, the first professional who warned of the interpersonal spread of the epidemic, as a national hero, and watching Leishenshan and Huoshenshan hospitals at 3 a.m. The construction of China, chanting "Come on, Wuhan, we are standing by your side." Today, more and more Chinese people are not complaining and sorrowing, but comforting and encouraging each other. This high public morale helps to quickly carry out social mobilization for epidemic prevention and control.
At the same time, since the early days of the fight against the epidemic, public donations to Wuhan have never stopped. In addition to donating money to Wuhan charities and the Red Cross, the public also mailed masks and protective clothing to Wuhan. Social groups voluntarily work in Wuhan. Many medical associations voluntarily provide counseling services to alleviate the fears of patients’ families. In Shanghai, some residents paid tribute to the services and sacrifices of front-line medical staff, and brought them milk tea, bread and delicious meals. Some enthusiastic citizens anonymously placed hundreds of masks at the entrance of the police station. These actions and moments of praise and love reflect the growing determination of the Chinese people to overcome the pneumonia epidemic caused by the new coronavirus.
3. The possible impact of the epidemic on China's economy
There are three main views on the negative impact of the novel coronavirus pneumonia epidemic on the Chinese economy at home and abroad. The "severe impact" theory tends to believe that it will have a serious impact on the already slowing Chinese economy, and even lead to a decline in its growth rate and hinder the global economy. The “controllable impact” theory believes that according to the data on the economic impact of SARS in 2003, the epidemic will have only a limited and controllable impact on the Chinese economy. Although the growth rate in the first quarter has fallen, China’s economy throughout the year Performance will not be affected much. The "uncertain impact" theory holds that historical evidence cannot explain the future economic trajectory, but the actual economic impact depends on how long the epidemic will last. After all, the size of China's economy (GDP of 99 trillion yuan) is 9 times that of 2003 (11.7 trillion yuan).
In fact, it is not prudent to use historical experience to judge the economic impact of this epidemic. In the new millennium, some epidemics, natural disasters or other serious incidents broke out in China. However, the Chinese government has successfully controlled and solved these problems, including the fight against SARS in 2003 (which caused the greatest short-term impact on the economy), H1N1 (swine flu), H7N9 (bird flu) in 2009, and the Wenchuan earthquake in 2008 Even in the face of the rampant global financial crisis in 2009, China is still able to maintain stable economic growth with a strong stimulus package and the collective efforts of the G20.
However, it is worth noting that the potential impact of the novel coronavirus pneumonia epidemic may be different from all previous epidemics and other events. On the one hand, when China’s economy transitions from high-speed growth to high-quality development, the country faces three arduous tasks, namely, preventing systemic financial risks, controlling pollution, and eliminating poverty; externally, it faces unprecedented challenges in globalization and trade with China and the United States. When the friction has just begun to ease, if China is called an "epidemic area", the Chinese economy will be further hit. Wuhan’s city-wide quarantine and more than 30 provincial-level responses have been implemented for the first time, and the epidemic has affected all economic sectors across the country; its impact on small and medium-sized enterprises remains to be seen. China’s employment, local government debt problems and the stability of the renminbi are all Has been severely tested. It is widely predicted that China's economic growth will drop by 1 to 1.5 percentage points. Some people even doubt whether the Chinese economy can achieve 5% growth in 2020.
More specifically, the novel coronavirus pneumonia epidemic has caused direct damage to the three main industries of China's economy: (1) service industries, especially consumer industries such as tourism, catering, entertainment and logistics (especially small and medium-sized enterprises); (2) 1) The manufacturing industry, represented by the mobile phone, automobile and electronics industries, may disrupt the global industrial chain to some extent due to the indefinite postponement of the resumption of work; as China's manufacturing center, Wuhan has suffered a heavy economic blow; (3) Trade, out of panic or geopolitical considerations, some countries may cut or even close aviation, sea routes and borders.
However, the resilience of the Chinese economy cannot be underestimated. Even in the short term, the epidemic does not only have a negative impact on the economy, it also benefits industries such as e-commerce, online games, and entertainment. At the same time, the Chinese government has strong financial capabilities in crisis management. As of January 29, 2020, governments at all levels have provided 27.3 billion yuan (nearly 4 billion U.S. dollars) for epidemic control; as the epidemic continues, it will adopt More policy measures. In the medium term, some Americans doubt whether China will be able to fulfill its commitments made during the first phase of negotiations with the United States; however, since this agreement has greatly eliminated the uncertainty of Sino-US trade relations, China’s purchase of US agricultural products is expected to Reached a new high; in addition, due to the epidemic, China is likely to increase its purchases of other products, such as medical equipment and supplies. It is worth noting that when formulating China's fourteenth five-year plan (2021-2025), the epidemic will be fully considered, and new measures are expected to be adopted to stimulate the economy in the next five years. In the long run, China has developed into the second largest economy, and the epidemic cannot reduce its huge potential in new economic fields such as consumption, urbanization, and 5G and artificial intelligence.
4. For the common safety of mankind, how does China cooperate with the international community to respond to the epidemic?
In a globalized world, the pneumonia epidemic caused by the new coronavirus will inevitably have a global impact. China has always been committed to promoting the building of a common future for mankind, and striving to shoulder its due international responsibilities and obligations in response to the epidemic.
First of all, in response to each step of the development of the epidemic, the Chinese government has been working closely with the World Health Organization (WHO) with the greatest degree of openness and the fastest efficiency. President Xi Jinping met with WHO Director-General Tan Desai on January 28 . After the Director General declared the pneumonia epidemic caused by the novel coronavirus as a “PHEIC”, mainstream Chinese media such as the People’s Daily and Xinhua News Agency immediately reported relevant news, indicating that the Chinese government does not need to deal with the public. With some concealment, the Chinese people are fully confident of defeating the epidemic.
Next, the Chinese government gave full understanding and assistance to the actions taken by other countries to prevent the epidemic, such as the evacuation of overseas Chinese from Wuhan and the decision to suspend flights to China. All similar requests will continue to receive the most effective and sincere support from the Chinese government.
In addition, the Chinese government has always been open to all kinds of assistance from other countries and expressed its gratitude. At the same time, China is considering promoting such cooperation in future epidemic prevention and control.
Finally, the Chinese government and public opinion are very concerned about the impact of the epidemic on the world. For example, in order to minimize the spread of the epidemic to other countries, the Chinese government has strengthened restrictions on overseas travel of people in areas where the epidemic is severe, and called on the public to take social responsibility in preventing the spread of the virus.
Regarding the concerns of the global epidemic, we suggest that the international community act together for the common security of mankind:
First, optimize the existing epidemic information release mechanism. At the same time, we strongly call on the international media and think tanks to report or analyze the epidemic in an objective, comprehensive and humanitarian manner, and to avoid hyping unconfirmed information or even rumors.
Second, strengthen the exchange of experience in international epidemic prevention and control. It is very important for China to translate the "Guidelines for the Public Protection of Pneumonia Infected by the Novel Coronavirus" into multiple languages and then quickly disseminate it to neighboring countries through various forms (such as social media). This will not only help these countries absorb China’s experience to fight the epidemic, but also help establish China’s image as a “friendly neighbor” and a “responsible power”. We call on the United States, the European Union and other developed countries to give China more support in medical equipment and supplies, and to share their best practices in preventing and controlling the epidemic.
Third, oppose discrimination against areas and populations with severe epidemics. The epidemic must not become a new barrier between countries. On the contrary, it should become a new bridge across countries. At present, the Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs and Chinese embassies and consulates abroad are in close contact with the governments and health and epidemic prevention departments of other countries to report the latest progress in the fight against the epidemic. Chinese communities abroad also pay close attention to the health status of Chinese citizens in the community; they are prepared to help local epidemic prevention agencies provide certification for healthy Chinese citizens or those who have proved their health through self-quarantine when necessary, to prevent information that is largely due to information An anti-China incident occurred due to incompleteness. We hereby advocate that the public in all countries should remain calm about the epidemic and avoid discriminating against the Chinese or anyone who is infected. Because human beings are a big family, no ethnic group can withstand our common challenges.
(According to the English report of Shanghai Institute of International Studies)
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